Month: November 2022

On 2 September 2022, European Rural Development Network organised the closing meeting with local actors and stakeholders of the Polish pilot in Mazowieckie region. The aim was to summarize the research and activities undertaken in the PoliRural project, discuss the sustainability of the pilot and gather experience from the implementation of the project. Also in terms of collecting useful lessons learned, we could share with other project members at the consortium meeting in Athens a few days later (see here) and as an introduction to the presentation of the project results to the broad international ERDN community, during a conference organised on 14-16 September 2022 (more in the PoliRural Newsletter #14).

The meeting was attended by representatives of local NGOs, community activists, residents (including new entrants), representatives of local authorities, local action groups and entrepreneurs involved in the creation and implementation of the Action Plan for the region.

The discussion focused on how the results obtained could be used in the planning of local activities in the coming years, including ideas for using the project results in the activities of the local action group, as well as how the results of the pilot correspond to the “Development Strategy of the Mazowieckie Voivodeship 2030+”, especially in terms of improving rural attractiveness through the promotion of job creation with adequate pay and with a view to supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, eco-firms and sustainable business.

Sharing their general impressions, the meeting participants pointed out the need to preserve the links and networks created, through which many development ideas can be put together, but also, by building on the strength of the community, to influence local development plans so that they better reflect the needs of local communities, take into account the specificities of the area and the rapidly changing external conditions for development, such as climate change, demographic trends, covid-19 and the current war in Ukraine contributing to the current refugee crisis.

This has been an important project helping to stimulate social inclusion in the local planning process, but also creating sustainable networks of local actors, without whom long-term rural and local development cannot be imagined.

A key objective of the PoliRural project is to explore the use of innovative tools applied to Regional Foresight. The expectation is that the use of tools based on Text Mining should lead to productivity gains for the local teams that lead and facilitate Foresight initiatives, whereas tools based on the use of System Dynamic Modelling can help stakeholders understand and select optimal policy mixes for implementation.

This article summarizes the work done to test the Policy Options Explorer or POE and provide a foundation for the work needed to make it into a generally accessible tool for use by non-experts. It can be read in conjunction with an article published in Newsletter No. 10, which introduced the subject of System Dynamic Modelling and described “Progress so Far in the Application of SDM to Regional Foresight.” It can also be read in conjunction with an article published in Newsletter No. 12 entitled “A Second Set of Experiments for Exploring the Application of SDM to Regional Foresight” in which we developed and tested a special case of the POE, where the only indicator of performance was a composite index of rural attractiveness, with a view to exploring different visualisation techniques enabling non -expert users to more easily explore highly complex issues such as different connects of “rural attractiveness.”

The POE tool is based on a comprehensive model of rural regions, comprising 8 modules, containing almost 300 parameters. The POE tool consist of three layers. The bottom layer is based on a small set of ‘input’ parameters, whose different values represent different policy choices. The top layer is based on a limited set of ‘output’ parameters whose values represent the performance of the region. The middle -layer contains all of the other parameters of the model and is essentially treated as a black box. In this way the user is shielded from most of the complexity of the model and can focus on the specific issue it intends to explore. To explore the impact of different policy scenarios on their region, each user selects sets of input parameters which correspond to the different policy scenarios and runs the model to see how these choices are reflected in changes to the output parameters.

With assistance from 22SISTEMA, the regions taking part in the project developed their own regionally adapted POE, based on regional specific data, and reflecting the policy issues they wanted to explore. After the design phase of work, each region elaborated a ‘Statement of Expectations’ which laid out what they hoped to achieve from using the model, along with a “Design of Experiment” document in which they explained how they intended to test their POE. They were then asked to test the use of their POE, following the experimental methodology they had designed, providing detailed feedback on their efforts, and commentary on how closely the tool fulfilled the initial expectations. The feedback from all regions was analysed by CKA. This analysis includes feedback on the models themselves, the user experience and tools provide to use the models, the challenge of obtaining data with which to populate the models, the extent which they appear to represent reality, and the value they provided in the context of the local Foresight exercise, as an aid to understanding complex regional dynamics, and as a tool to support the selection of appropriate policy mixes intended to realise the future vision for each region. These results are very encouraging and our fundings are described in detail in a document entitled “Results of the POE Trials,” available here. This should be read in conjunction with D5.5, available here, for clear ideas of what now needs to be done to achieve a significant breakthrough in the large-scale application of SDM to the exploration of policy options in the context of regional Foresight.

The Monaghan Irish PoliRural pilot’s Foresight activities have directly involved 0.3% of the county’s total population of 61,386 so far, driven by its PoliRural Stakeholders Panel with broad representation reflecting the dynamic and complex rural county.

The PoliRural Foresight Process has concluded that Monaghan is at a pivotal “Moment of Change” due to drivers such as the climate change, EU Green agenda, Brexit, Covid-19, Ukraine war, etc, which present big challenges, but also opportunities, particularly in the context of the EU Long-Term Vision and policies for Rural Areas.

The Monaghan Foresight Action Plan, which has been iteratively developed in the Foresight process, aims that by 2030, Monaghan will be a strong, connected, resilient and prosperous rural region, with a vibrant and inclusive community, involving the highest proportion of non-traditional new entrants and young farmers in Ireland.

The main task of the ex-durante evaluation was to document the progress made, review the involvement of primary stakeholders, and identify the first indications of intervention effects.

The report “Ex-durante Intervention Case Study” (D6.3.) done by PoliRural partnership is based on an analysis of 12 ex-durante evaluation reports of Action Plan implementation prepared by each pilot region. The ex-durante evaluations were carried out during the final stage of developing Foresight packages of the twelve pilot regions when pilot teams finalized Regional Action Plans and Roadmaps, worked on their adoption by decision-makers, and started the implementation of first actions.

The report studies the results of these evaluations and the effects of the ex-durante evaluation exercise on the mission-oriented transformation processes in pilot regions. The report assesses implementation progress made during the reporting period, evaluates contributions to the key EU missions, and the quality of measurement framework of the planned interventions. It summarises the results of the pilots’ work with stakeholders and looks for the changes in stakeholders’ engagement, ownership, and capacity.

Conducting an ex-durante evaluation provides an opportunity to ask important questions, reconsider the choices made and provide helpful information for decision making. Thus, it is helping to improve policies and programs, as well as their implementation, assess the performance of involved actors, and the relevance and efficacy of measurement framework and management practices.

What is worth mentioning, the ex-durante evaluation results demonstrate an increase in stakeholders’ learning and capacity gains mainly due to the unique possibility of highly relevant discussions and dialogue between various stakeholders that have stimulated critical reflection and learning.

Ex-durante evaluation has provided each pilot with a closer, more critical in-depth look at their Action Plans. It has significantly benefited them, contributing to the quality of their proposed Action Plans and the PoliRural project in general.

Outstanding conclusions:

• The involvement of key decision-makers in the monitoring mechanisms of the Action Plan is seen as an essential precondition for securing the adoption and successful implementation of Action Plans by several pilot regions;
• Russian war in Ukraine and its consequences on energy, economy, environmental and social processes has been a new and very influential external factor that pilot regions faced during the reporting period. It has served as a valuable lesson demonstrating how quickly situations may change and that every plan shall be able to adapt and adjust its measures;
• The results of ex-durante evaluations confirm the positive effects of the evaluation process for the pilot teams. The most considerable effect is related to the analysis of stakeholder engagement, ownership, and capacity gains. Pilots have continued active communication with regional stakeholders involving them in discussions and experiments using tools developed by the PoliRural project. This has resulted in further improved Action Plans, new insights, the increased status of pilot organizations, and capacity gains among the pilot teams.

You can find the full text version of the report here.

As PoliRural draws to a close, it must grapple with one of the most difficult questions in EU projects: how to ensure long-term sustainability? There are different ways to define sustainability. We see it as post-project existence of PoliRural ideas, deliverables and know-how that immediate beneficiaries and the wider public use to achieve their goals. Some of them can be commercial, some policy related. Some may be technical, some scientific or societal. The nature of the exploitation is not so important. What matters is that results are continuously exploited by stakeholders for their own benefit, to help others, or both.

PoliRural’s main results are

• A network of 500 stakeholders that have provided strong participatory foundation to the innovative foresight framework piloted in 12 regions;
• A foresight package outlining, for each region 1) a vision, 2) a set of measures that need to be implemented to make rural areas stronger, resilient, better connected, and prosperous, and 3) a roadmap for implementing these measures;
• A suit of technical tools designed to support regional pilots with different foresight tasks e.g. exploring the impact of proposed measures on regional performance (Policy Options Explorer) and rural attractiveness (Rural Attractiveness Explorer), creating summaries of reading lists and extracting insightful information from them e.g. context, emotions (Semantic Explorer);
• A collection of reports, guidance documents and methodological notes that capture results of our work, as well as recommendations for others looking to implement regional foresight in a new geographic/thematic context.

In keeping with the principle of open science, we have made all our written outputs available on the project website. These include both official reports and internal deliverables like deep-dive guides on Covid-19, CAP reform, and Green Deal, that users are free to adapt to explore these and other challenges facing their region e.g., energy crisis, cost-of-living crisis, geopolitical crisis. Our approach to regional foresight and the role of different tools in the process is elaborated in a webinar series that are available on our YouTube channel, as well as the PoliRural Digital Innovation which includes links to POE, RAE and Semex.

After several iterations, the foresight package (summarized in D6.2 Regional Action Plans) is now undergoing a process of adoption, facilitated by high-level meetings with policy actors e.g. the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in Slovakia, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy in North Macedonia. To ensure that proposed measures get implemented, PoliRural pilots have set up monitoring committees. These are composed of members of the regional stakeholder panel, who will oversee implementation of the plan, thus ensuring continuation of PoliRural results post-project.